What is happening in the market
The situation has worsened because of the talent shortage: a strong specialist today is negotiating with two or three employers at once, and your offer is not the only one. According to 2026 data, more than 46% of candidates receive a counter-offer from their current employer after announcing they are leaving, and roughly 80% of them accept it. The frequency of counter-offers has grown by about a third over the past two years.
The second reason is less obvious and psychological. Many people do not disappear out of spite — they simply find it uncomfortable to refuse directly. It is easier to stop replying than to say "I have changed my mind". So a candidate's silence is almost always a sign that refusing was hard for them, not a display of disrespect.
The key conclusion: losing a candidate almost always happens in silence. The less contact there is between "yes" and the first working day, the higher the risk that someone will change their mind in the meantime.
Five reasons candidates do not show up
1. A counter-offer from the current employer
The most common reason. The person hands in their notice and is immediately offered a raise, a promotion or a new project. Leaving is always scarier than staying, and a counter-offer gives a legitimate excuse not to take the risk.
2. Another offer that turned out to be better
While you spent three days getting your offer approved internally, another employer sent theirs in two hours. Speed in this market is a competitive advantage in its own right.
3. Too long a gap before the start date
A standard month of notice is thirty days during which someone can be talked out of it. If your company makes no contact in that time, you gradually become an abstraction, while the current employer is right there, persuading them to stay.
4. Verbal terms differed from the paperwork
At interview it was "around 500 thousand"; in the employment contract it turned out to be 400,000 base plus a performance bonus. Formally everything is honest; emotionally it feels like deception. Such discrepancies come to light exactly before the start date.
5. Something raised concerns when they looked into the company
The candidate read reviews, spoke to acquaintances, visited the office — and changed their mind. This is unpleasant but useful feedback about how the company looks from the outside.
What to do: the period between offer and start
The main rule is not to disappear. This stretch needs to be managed as deliberately as the recruitment itself.
| When | What to do | Why |
|---|---|---|
| On offer day | Send a written offer with all terms: salary, bonuses, schedule, reporting line, start date | Removes discrepancies and makes the agreement tangible |
| Right after acceptance | Raise the counter-offer topic directly: "they will probably ask you to stay — what will you do?" | The person voices their decision aloud and prepares for it in advance |
| After 2–3 days | Have the future manager write personally about the work of the first month | Builds a bond with the team rather than an abstract company |
| 1–2 weeks before | Send the plan for the first week, add them to the work chat, introduce colleagues | The person already feels part of the team — walking away becomes psychologically harder |
| 2–3 days before | Confirm time, place, who will meet them, what to bring | Removes practical anxiety before the first day |
How to respond to a counter-offer
When a candidate says they have been asked to stay, arguing and pressuring is useless. Something else works — helping them think it through.
- Ask why they decided to leave in the first place. If the reason was not money — and usually it is not — a raise does not remove it
- Ask why that money was not paid earlier. An awkward but honest question: usually a raise appears only under the threat of departure
- Do not raise your own offer in response. Bargaining at this stage means you are hiring someone who will stay exactly until the next offer
- Give them time until a specific deadline. "Think it over until Wednesday, I will call on Wednesday" is better than open-ended waiting
A practical detail. Statistically, a significant proportion of those who accept a counter-offer leave the company within a year anyway — the original cause of dissatisfaction has not gone away. So it makes sense to keep the contact and return to the conversation a few months later.
How to tell a candidate is having doubts
A refusal is almost never sudden — it is preceded by signals that are easy to notice if you know what to look for.
| Signal | What it means | What to do |
|---|---|---|
| Replies more slowly than usual, briefly | An alternative has appeared, or pressure from the current employer | Call rather than write: tone of voice reveals mood |
| Asks to postpone the start date | Often buying time until a decision on another offer | Ask the reason directly and calmly, name a final deadline |
| Reopens discussion of terms after accepting | Comparing with a counter-offer received | Do not get drawn into bargaining; return to the reasons for leaving |
| Does not sign documents, does not respond to the future manager | The decision is effectively being reconsidered | A direct conversation: "I can see doubts have appeared, let us discuss them" |
A direct question works better here than polite waiting. The phrase "it matters to me to understand the real situation, so I will ask directly: are you having doubts?" most often gets an honest answer — and a chance to change something.
A company made an offer to a strong candidate for a head of department role. He accepted, but five weeks of notice remained before his start date. In that time nobody from the company wrote to him once — they considered the matter settled.
A week before the start date the candidate announced he was staying where he was: he had been offered a new area of responsibility and a promotion. The search began again and took a further two months.
The review showed something simple: in five weeks of silence no bond with the new company had formed at all, while the previous employer had been right there the whole time, actively holding on to him.
Insurance: do not stop the search until they start
The most expensive mistake is closing the vacancy the moment a candidate says yes. Until the person has started and worked their first week, the vacancy is not filled.
What to do while waiting for the start date
- Keep two finalists warm rather than rejecting them immediately — tell them a decision has been made but you would be glad to reopen the conversation
- Do not remove the advert from job platforms until the new employee's first working day
- Agree internally who will contact the future employee and on which days
- If a candidate stops replying, send one calm message without reproach: often the person is simply embarrassed to announce a refusal, and such a message reopens the dialogue
What to do if the person still does not turn up
- Make contact once, calmly. Without reproach. Sometimes a real reason emerges — illness, family circumstances, a misunderstanding about terms — and the situation can be resolved
- Ask for feedback. If the person is willing to talk, ask what influenced their decision. This is the most valuable information about how your company looks from outside
- Go back to your finalists. If you kept in touch, the second candidate is often still available
- Analyse the process. How many days passed between offer and start, was there any contact, was the counter-offer topic discussed
- Do not close the door. Some of those who accept a counter-offer return to the market within a year. A preserved contact may pay off later
In brief
Candidates most often fail to start because of a counter-offer from their current employer: 46% receive one and 80% of those accept. The second factor is silence between the offer and the first day. The remedy is regular contact, a written offer, a frank conversation about counter-offers in advance, and the rule of not closing a vacancy until the person has actually started.